Сколько пусков Falcon 9 будет в 2016 году?

[Kap]

Not пишет:
что аэрокосмические корпорации - неэффективные раздутые монстры

...уже скоро два года не могущие осилить импортозамещение РД-180. Ну и Старлайнер кое-кто уже перенес на +2 года в право.

[Salo]

А Раптор, о котором Маск говорит уже пять лет, давно покоряет просторы вселенной?

[Сергей]

Владимир Шпирько пишет:

Сергей пишет:

Установка решетчатых рулей позволила повысить запас статической устойчивости ступени( увеличилось расстояние между центром масс и центром давления), появились возможность управления с помощью аэродинамических сил по крену и по тангажу и рысканью(поТ и Р дополнительно к поворотной камере).Решетки обладают малым шарнирным моментом и для рулевых машин решетокиспользуется вытеснение гидравлической жидкости из емкости газом, после РМ жидкость сливается за борт. При нехватке жидкости решетки фиксируются РМ и не вращаются. У решеток, как и у других аэродинамических органов, эффективность зависит от скорости воздушного потока, и при малых скоростях они неэффективны, как раз на финишном участке посадки

Из первого и последнего предложения следует => что чем ближе к земле (воде, барже ...) тем меньше запас устойчивости! Возможно даже статическая неустойчивость! При этом "управляемость" - чуствительность к повороту вектора тяги должна увеличиваться.В зависимости от скорости должны меняться коэффициенты в уравнениях посадки. Система сразу становится весьма нелинейной.И это выдается за шедевр?Две посадки на воду прошли без этих рулей-"мухобоек". Их не было и на показанных посадках "Кузнечика".Вероятно они не требовались и по результатам компьютерного моделирования, а вот по летным испытаниям потребовались.Команда Маска видит свои просчеты и учится на них, НО не признается в этом, давая только оптимистические объяснения

В этой теме один из читателей справедливо отмечал, что и без решеток ступень статически устойчива.Центр давления цилиндра примерно посередине, решетки смещают его в свою сторону.Центр масс ступени благодаря массе ДУ смещен в сторону ДУ от середины. Система конечна нелинейна, но это почти всегда имеет место(меняется скорость в очень широких пределах, масса,аэродинамические характеристики, моменты инерции, эффективность органов управления и т.д. И все это заводится в алгоритм СУ при моделировании динамики полета. То, что команда Маска видит свои просчеты и учится на них - это замечательно.А не признается - что бы не отпугнуть заказчиков, так делается и у нас( публике лапшу на уши и втихаря исправить реальные ошибки).А вообще то, кроме СпейсИкс вполне достойна уважения другая частная компания -Orbital Sciences Corporation, начинала со штатом 30 человек, в менее благоприятных финансовых условиях, выжила, расширила спектр услуг и т.д.

[Kap]

Salo пишет:
А Раптор, о котором Маск говорит уже пять лет, давно покоряет просторы вселенной?

Ему кто-то давал бюджетных денег на Раптор и МСТ? А вот Боингу на Дримлайнер давали.

[Владимир Шпирько]

Сергей пишет:

В этой теме один из читателей справедливо отмечал, что и без решеток ступень статически устойчива.Центр давления цилиндра примерно посередине, решетки смещают его в свою сторону

А раскрытые посадочные опоры?  Они сдвигают ЦД в низ.  К тому же ступень не "свободно падающее тело"  - возможно при свободном падении аэродинамически она и устойчива, а при работающем двигателе? Точка приложения тяги ниже ЦМ.  И при малых скоростях эта сила много больше аэродинамических сил на рулях.      + при поворотах по рысканию и тангажу  остатки топлива болтаются по бакам, изменяя положения ЦМ относительно оси, успокоительные решетки конечно есть, но они обычно снижают этом эффект, но не ликвидируют его полностью. А ведь при посадке угловые скорости в разы выше чем при выведении,

[Salo]

Kap пишет:

Salo пишет:
А Раптор, о котором Маск говорит уже пять лет, давно покоряет просторы вселенной?

Ему кто-то давал бюджетных денег на Раптор и МСТ? А вот Боингу на Дримлайнер давали.

Вы о чём?

[Salo]

Свежая версия:

2016
NET January 3 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8 ), BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40 ~10:30 (or January 5)
March 21 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 1st quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 1st quarter - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
1st quarter - FORMOSAT 5, SHERPA SSO: Arkyd-6, CNUSail 1, KAUSAT 5, SIGMA, CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA, CubeSats - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
May - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
June 10 - Dragon SpX-10 (CRS10) - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
1st half - JCSat-16 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
midyear - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
 August 15- Dragon SpX-11 (CRS11) - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET August - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - SES-10 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd half - SES-11 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
October - STP-02: DSX, COSMIC-2: FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM, OTB, FalconSat 6, NPSat 1, Oculus-ASR, Prox 1, LightSail B, Cubesats, Ballast - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2017)
NET October - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
4th quarter - Dragon SpX-12 (CRS12) - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Es'hail 2 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - KoreaSat 5A/Mugungwha 5A - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - ViaSat-2 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or Ariane 5)
November - SAOCOM-1A, Itasat-1 - Falcon 9 v1.2- Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET December - Dragon v2 (unmanned test) (SpX-DM1)- Falcon 9 v1.2 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET December - Iridium Next Flight 3 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.2- Vandenberg SLC-4E
late - Europasat/HellasSat-3 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
late - Thaicom 8 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40  
TBD - Iridium Next Flight 4 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.2- Vandenberg SLC-4E ( 2017)
TBD - Iridium Next Flight 5 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.2- Vandenberg SLC-4E ( 2017)
TBD - DragonLab-1 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - BulgariaSat 1 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - Inmarsat 5 F4 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A

Итого ожидается 28 пусков.

ЗЫ: После крайних корректировок уже 26.

[Salo]

2016
NET January 17 - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 18:42:18 (or 1st half of January (TBD))
mid-January (TBD) - SES-9 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
NET February 7 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8 ) , BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 - 21:01
March 21 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 ~04:00
1st quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 1st quarter - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
spring - FORMOSAT 5, SHERPA SSO: Arkyd-6, CNUSail 1, KAUSAT 5, SIGMA, CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA, CubeSats - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
May - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
June 10 - Dragon SpX-10 (CRS10) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
1st half - JCSat-16 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
midyear - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
August 15- Dragon SpX-11 (CRS11) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
NET August - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - SES-10 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd half - SES-11 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
October - STP-02: DSX, COSMIC-2A (equatorial): FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM, OTB, FalconSat 6, NPSat 1, Oculus-ASR, Prox 1, LightSail B, Cubesats, Ballast - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2017)
NET October - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
4th quarter - Dragon SpX-12 (CRS12) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Es'hail 2 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2017)
4th quarter - KoreaSat 5A/Mugungwha 5A - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 (2017)
4th quarter - ViaSat-2 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or Ariane 5) (or 2017)
November - SAOCOM-1A, Itasat-1 - Falcon 9 FT- Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET December - Iridium Next Flight 3 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT- Vandenberg SLC-4E (or 2017)
NET December - Dragon v2 (unmanned test) (SpX-DM1)- Falcon 9 FT - Kennedy LC-39A
late - Inmarsat 5 F4 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2017)
late - Europasat/HellasSat-3 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or NLT 1st quarter 2017)
late - Thaicom 8 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2017)
TBD - DragonLab-1 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2017)
TBD - BulgariaSat 1 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40

ИТОГО 29.

ЗЫ: Уже 28, но возможны ещё переносы на 2017 (добавил)

ЗЗЫ: Не более 27-ми.

[Bizonich]

Да уж. Громадье планов, и Dragon.v2, и FH, и DragonLab. Интересно что из этого осуществит Маск? Может кто опрос создаст?

[Магадан Магадан]

Сколько у Маска процентов от всего рынка коммерческих запусков? Кто нибудь посчитал?

[Salo]

В этом году только три пуска, против одного у Мицубиси, двух у Локхида, четырёх у Хруничева (один за бугор) и шести у Арианспейс. Что-то около 20%.

[МиГ-31]

Хорошее кино!
http://www.theverge.com/2015/12/21/10640306/spacex-elon-musk-rocket-landing-success

[Salo]

Прогноз от Маска "более двенадцати":
http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/postlanding-teleconference-with-elon-musk-2015-12-22

Elon Musk говорит:
We have quite a big flight manifest and should be doing well over a dozen flights next year.

Реалистично.

[Alex_II]

Salo пишет:
Реалистично.

При условии, что не будет аварий - вполне...

[Salo]

http://spacenews.com/delays-in-spacex-falcon-9-upgrade-schedule-raises-concerns/

Delays in SpaceX Falcon 9 Upgrade schedule raise concerns
by Peter B. de Selding — February 1, 2016
  SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk said Jan. 30 he expected the first Falcon Heavy flight "toward the end of the year... maybe late summer." Credit: Space News file photo  
 
PARIS—SpaceX's silence on the schedule delays of its Falcon 9 Upgrade rocket, whose inaugural flight on Dec. 21 was a success, is causing ripples of concern among commercial customers, which like NASA are counting on a high launch cadence in 2016 to meet these companies' schedule milestones, industry officials said.
The next flight of the Falcon 9 Upgrade, also known as Falcon 9 v1.2, is ostensibly dedicated to the 5,300-kilogram SES-9 telecommunications satellite, headed to geostationary transfer orbit.
That mission, scheduled for September, has been repeatedly delayed as Hawthorne, California-based SpaceX made final checks on the new-version rocket, which provides 30 percent more power than the Falcon 9 v1.1 rocket it is replacing.
The new power will enable the rocket to carry sufficient fuel to take large telecommunications satellites to geostationary transfer orbit while retaining enough propellant to return the first stage for refurbishment and reuse – a key SpaceX goal to reduce launch costs.
Luxembourg-based SES and SpaceX in October agreed to allow SpaceX to first test the Falcon 9 Upgrade on a lighter-weight, low-orbit mission, carrying 11 machine-to-machine messaging satellites for Orbcomm Inc. of Rochelle Park, New Jersey.
The Dec. 21 mission went off smoothly, both in separating the Orbcomm satellites in the correct orbit and returning the first stage to a landing point near the launch pad at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida.
Importantly for commercial geostationary satellite owners, SpaceX said the mission also featured a full-duration re-ignition of the Falcon 9 rocket's upper-stage engine to demonstrate the coast-and-restart function needed for the heavier telecommunications payloads.
After telling investors to expect SES-9 in October and then November, SES said it hoped for a late-December launch on the heels of the successful Orbcomm mission. That schedule came and went, and the company focused on January.
Industry officials are now openly speculating that the launch will not occur until March. The effect of another month's delay might be minimal for SES – although the company's 2016 revenue forecast includes substantial SES-9 revenue. But the knock-on effects on the rest of the SpaceX manifest for 2016 may be more important.
In response to SpaceNews inquiries, SES on Jan. 29 said it is awaiting word fr om SpaceX to determine when the SES-9 launch would occur. The company specifically declined to say whether March was a more likely launch at this point but said that the satellite, built by Boeing Space and Intelligence Systems of El Segundo, California, was in good health and was not blocking the launch.
Many companies are hoping for a 2016 launch from SpaceX. Some are more anxious than others. With each passing week without a launch, their announced schedules become less and less tenable.
Spacecom of Israel, in what industry officials characterized as a highly optimistic announcement, on Jan. 26 announced that its Amos-6 telecommunications satellite would be launched aboard the Falcon 9 in May.
Eutelsat of Paris and ABS of Bermuda are awaiting the launch of their two Boeing-built satellites, Eutelsat's 117 West B and the ABS 3A satellites, together on a Falcon 9 Upgrade rocket. Both companies have said they expect a launch by March, although it is unclear whether one or two NASA space station cargo missions might immediately follow SES-9. That would make March less likely.
In addition to a heavy Falcon 9 Upgrade manifest for 2016, SpaceX is scheduled to introduce its Falcon Heavy – three Falcon 9 first stages tied together with a single second stage atop the middle lower stage.
SpaceX has said it would conduct a demonstration flight of Falcon Heavy before proceeding with any payloads. The second launch had been dedicated to the U.S. Air Force's Space Test Program-2 (STP-2) satellite as the main payload.
Among the commercial customers on the Falcon Heavy manifest, ViaSat Inc. of Carlsbad, California, is perhaps the most financially exposed to any launch delay. The large ViaSat-2 Ka-band broadband satellite, once in service, will allow ViaSat to reopen broadband subscriptions to U.S. customers in regions wh ere the current ViaSat-1 satellite's beams are full.
ViaSat-2 also extends ViaSat's Exeded broadband service to the North Atlantic air and maritime corridors. ViaSat has told investors to expect a 2016 launch.
On Jan. 30, SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk, in remarks at Texas A&M University on the SpaceX-backed competition to design future fast passenger ground transportation, said the Falcon Heavy "is supposed to launch toward the end of this year. I'd say maybe late September."
SpaceX declined to respond to inquiries about the Falcon schedule.

[Теплотехник]

ОТ 12 ДО 14. И ВСЁ.

[Salo]

Почалося:

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  
Arianespace: We're launching ViaSat 2 in 2017 (former Falcon Heavy customer worried about delays) and ViaSat 3, a new sat, in late 2019/20
  13:07 - 9 февр. 2016 г.  

[Salo]

Launched:

2016:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)
01 - January 17 - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 18:42:18
02 -  March 4 - SES-9 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:35:00

Scheduled:

Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2016

April 4 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8), BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 22:15
mid-April - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
May 3 - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
May - FORMOSAT 5, SHERPA SSO: Arkyd-6A, CNUSail 1, KAUSAT 5, SIGMA, CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA, eXCITe, BlackSky Pathfinder 1, BlackSky Pathfinder 2, OCSD B, OCSD C, Fox 1C, Fox 1D, Nayif 1, skCUBE, CubeSats - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
June 24 (TBD) - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
June - Thaicom 8 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or late)
July - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
July - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 3rd quarter)
August 1 (TBD) - Dragon SpX-10 (CRS10), SAGE-III, STP-H5/ISEM - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
September - SES-10 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd half - JCSat-16 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
October - SES-11 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
October - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
4th quarter - Es'hail 2 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2017)
November - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
November - SAOCOM-1A, Itasat-1 - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET December - Iridium Next Flight 3 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E (or 2017)
TBD - DragonLab-1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2017)
TBD - BulgariaSat 1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2017)

ИТОГО 21 пуск.

[Salo]

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes
SpaceX's Shotwell: We'll do 18 launches this yr and 30-50% more than that in 2017.#satellite2016
  13:34 - 9 марта 2016 г.  

[Salo]

http://fortune.com/2016/03/22/spacex-rockets-every-few-weeks/

SpaceX's Big Plan To Launch Rockets Every Few Weeks       
by Clay Dillow
March 22, 2016, 12:30 PM EDT   
                                           
Assuming everything goes as hoped.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has long talked about launching payloads into orbit as often as once per week. Now, that dream may be slowly becoming a reality.
SpaceX executives have indicated that the company, which has only managed two launches so far this year, could ramp up to two launches per month starting with its very next launch. At a conference earlier this month, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell announced the ambitious goal of launching 18 rockets by the end of this year including the first-ever launch of the larger Falcon Heavy rocket.
That's a full three-fold increase over the number of rockets SpaceX blasted into orbit last year, and an average of nearly two launches per month from April through December. To hit its lofty target, SpaceX will need to drastically increase its launch tempo following a scheduled April 8 mission to resupply the International Space Station (ISS) for NASA.
Barring any major setbacks, the remainder of 2016 could see one of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets headed to orbit every few weeks–assuming SpaceX can keep up with the ambitious schedule it has set for itself, something it has struggled with in the past.
SpaceX's upcoming mission will be its first for NASA since a similar ISS resupply mission experienced a mechanical failure causing the rocket to explode mid-flight last June. The company returned to flight in December after grounding its rockets for six months, and since then has launched just three missions—one each in December, January, and early March.
To finish the year with 18 launches, SpaceX needs something like 1.78 launches per month—a goal that Shotwell claims is within reach. In keeping with that ambitious timeline, SpaceX is reportedly already slating its next commercial launch for mid-April, potentially just days after NASA's ISS mission lifts off, according to an industry-wide launch schedule maintained by Spaceflight Now.
That schedule indicates that SpaceX also has at least one mission scheduled for both May and June. All three of those upcoming missions were bumped from the second half of last year when SpaceX's rockets were grounded.
Successfully increasing its tempo to multiple launches per month would go a long way toward building SpaceX's reputation for reliability, which was shaken somewhat by last year's rocket failure—not so much by the exploding rocket itself as by the delays it caused. Some degree of failure is expected in the commercial space industry, but delays could be extremely costly for companies that have spent tens or hundreds of millions on a satellite.
In other words, the industry will forgive the occasional exploding rocket. But a long and costly launch delay could send customers looking for more reliable options.
Since returning to flight, SpaceX engineers have experienced some problems with the latest iteration of its Falcon 9, which runs on super-cooled kerosene and liquid oxygen chilled almost to their freezing points. This colder, denser fuel lets the Falcon 9 carry more fuel and provides additional power, but it's also more fickle on the launchpad.
During its most recent mission in early March, SpaceX had to delay the mission twice because of technical issues related to the super-cooled propellants. Shotwell has called those issues "minor" and insists that the company has solved the technical issues behind them.
If SpaceX really wants to ramp up its launch tempo and boost customer confidence, it's going to have to get past these troublesome hangups and start launching regularly and reliably—especially as SpaceX leadership continues to move the bar higher. According to Shotwell, a pace of 16 more launches over the next nine months should shift to 24 launches in 2017. From there, SpaceX plans to continue accelerating its cadence, at a rate of 30% to 50% annually.
At that rate, assuming SpaceX can both manufacture the necessary rockets and avoid any show-stopping mission failures, the company would essentially be launching every week by 2020 (assuming the lower growth rate of 30% year-over-year). It's unclear at the moment if demand for space launch services—or SpaceX's own infrastructure—could support such a rapid launch tempo. But if SpaceX is going to get there, the next nine months will prove crucial in demonstrating the company's ability to regularly and reliably send is clients' cargo into orbit.