Сколько пусков Falcon 9 будет в 2015 году?

Автор Salo, 08.11.2014 17:41:38

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Местный

#60
Еще одна безаварийная.Подробности есть какие то?

тавот

ЦитироватьLanista пишет:
Не назову цифру, но думаю будет авария и перерыв на несколько месяцев.
(плюнул три раза и постучал по дереву)
Накаркал.
Three, two, one, ignition, and liftoff !

Охотник утки, пьющий водки !

Это ещё не сверхтяж, но уже и не супертяж.© Д.О.Р.

Lanista

Цитироватьтавот пишет:
Накаркал.
=(
Теорвер, бессердечная ты наука.
Надежности 100% не бывает.

NK

ЦитироватьLanista пишет:
Цитироватьтавот пишет:
Накаркал.
=(
Теорвер, бессердечная ты наука.
Надежности 100% не бывает.
ЦитироватьНе научный вывод

Salo

#64
ЦитироватьLaunched:

2015:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

01 - January 10 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 09:47
02 - February 11 - DSCOVR (Triana) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03:32.287
03 - March 2 - Eutelsat 115 West B (Satmex 7), ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 03:50
04 - April 14 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 20:10:41
05 - April 27 - TürkmenÄlem 52E (MonacoSat) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03
06 - June 28 - Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 14:21 (launch failure)

Scheduled:

Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2015

August 9 (TBD) - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
August (TBD) - SES-9 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or NLT September)
September 2 (TBD) - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8 )  , BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
late September (TBD) - Orbcomm G2 (x11) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
October 1 (TBD) - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter (TBD) - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 9 (TBD) - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
"Были когда-то и мы рысаками!!!"

Salo

#65
Цитировать Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  
 
Not just ISS: SpaceX's Shotwell's estimate that Falcon cld be down 'a number of months' a blow to SES, Orbcomm, ViaSat, US/Euro ocean study.
"Были когда-то и мы рысаками!!!"

Salo

http://spacenews.com/spacex-failure-leaves-long-list-of-customers-in-the-lurch/
ЦитироватьSpaceX Failure Leaves Long List of Customers in the Lurch
by Peter B. de Selding — June 29, 2015
SpaceX is building a hangar at Cape Canaveral's Pad39A capable of holding up to five rockets at once. Credit: SpaceX  
 
PARIS — The June 28 failure of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is almost certain to deal a blow to the revenue projections of numerous SpaceX commercial customers that had been basing their results on being in orbit this year or early in 2016.
Commercial operators whose scheduled launches are now under threat include:
• SES of Luxembourg, which had planned a September launch of a satellite providing the company with a late 2015/early 2016 revenue boost with substantial new-business capacity.
• Machine-to-machine satellite operator Orbcomm of Rochelle Park, New Jersey, whose 11 remaining second-generation satellites were scheduled for launch this year.
• Eutelsat of Paris and ABS of Bermuda, whose twin all-electric satellites take several months to reach final destination in orbit and were scheduled for launch late this year on a single Falcon 9.
 • Mobile satellite services provider Iridium Communications of McLean, Virginia, with seven launches planned in 2016-2017 to complete its second-generation constellation.
• ViaSat Inc. of Carlsbad, California, whose ViaSat-2 broadband satellite is needed to return to growth ViaSat's U.S. consumer broadband business and was scheduled on a mid-2016 flight of SpaceX's not-yet-flown Falcon Heavy. SpaceX had planned to launch the inaugural Falcon Heavy on a self-funded launch late this year, with three customer missions in 2016 for the U.S. Air Force, a joint Inmarat/Arabsat satellite and for ViaSat.
Spacecom of Israel's Amos 6 and Sky Perfect JSat of Japan's JCSat-14 also had been scheduled for launch this year.
And that's just the commercial end. On the government side, ocean-altimetry users worldwide had been awaiting the August launch of the Jason-3 satellite to take over fr om the existing Jason-2, which is long past its planned retirement date.
Argentina's Conae space agency had planned two Falcon 9 launches, each carrying a Saocom radar Earth observation satellite. SpaceX has said Conae had made deposits of $25.1 million in 2013 and $41.9 million in 2015 for the two flights.
The initial post-failure focus has logically been on its effect on the International Space Station. The Falcon 9 v1.1 rocket was carrying a Dragon space station cargo-supply freighter and was the third cargo-supply failure in less than a year. As a result, NASA and the other space station partners are more than ever counting on planned cargo flights of Russian and Japanese cargo vessels, planned for July and August, respectively.
NASA and the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, said June 28 that there is no immediate issue for the station's astronauts given the current on-board supply levels.
But unlike space station managers, commercial satellite operators generally do not store capacity in orbit in the event of supply shutdown except in cases wh ere the backup supply is guaranteed to television broadcasters and is embedded in contract pricing.
Commercial operators not only do not have spare capacity to replace planned launches, the current state of the commercial launch market leaves them with no choice but to stick with the vehicles they have reserved.
With Russia's Proton rocket still struggling to recover from its May failure – its fourth since mid-2012 – the commercial market for the past two years has rushed to book slots aboard Europe's Ariane 5 heavy-lift rocket and the SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1.
This has made commercial operators nervous. The larger of them – SES, Intelsat and Eutelsat, with a total of nearly 140 satellites in orbit – have stressed the need for a third viable rocket and said they stand ready to return to Proton if the vehicle's builders can demonstrate better manufacturing quality control.
Industry officials have said Russia's Proton is likely to return to flight by September. But how many commercial flights it can accomplish in the next 12 months while meeting the demands of the Russian government market is unclear.
In any event, no commercial fleet operator at the moment wants to put a satellite at the end of the Proton queue, especially since the September return-to-flight scenario has not been confirmed by Roscosmos.
Arianespace has said its Ariane 5 manifest is full through 2016, meaning any SpaceX customer seeking to switch vehicles for an earlier launch is likely to be told: Openings start sometime in 2017.
Investment bank Jeffries on June 29 referred to SpaceX as "the golden child" of the commercial launch industry, both for its arrival as an alternative to the troubled Proton and for its low-price pressure on Arianespace.
One industry official said Hawthorne, California-based SpaceX in recent months has not used its de facto duopoly with Arianespace to raise prices . On the contrary, this official said, SpaceX has been offering prices well below $60 million for a launch to geostationary transfer orbit, the destination of most telecommunications satellites. Even $55 million proposals have been seen, the official said.
In June 26 testimony to the U.S. House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, Jeffrey Thornburg, SpaceX senior director for propulsion engineering, said the company's backlog was valued at more than $7 billion, with nearly 50 missions manifested.
When commercial fleet operators say they want three regular flight options to preserve schedule credibility, launch-service suppliers routinely counter that these operators are using schedule concerns as a code for driving down launch costs.
Given the current Proton and Falcon 9 status, it is schedule more than anything that matters to these fleet operators.
One company whose business model seems able to shrug off what would be catastrophic events for others is Planet Labs of San Francisco, California, which is building an Earth observation business with dozens of small satellites, many deployed into low Earth orbit from the space station.
Planet Labs lost eight satellites in the Falcon 9 failure – assuming none can be recovered from the Dragon capsule debris – and lost 26 others in the October 2014 failure of the Orbital ATK Antares rocket, also on a space station supply mission.
In a June 28 statement, Planet Labs Chief Executive Will Marshall took the latest setback in stride:
"We've experienced a launch failure before and, statistically, we will again," Marshall said. "With a quarterly launch schedule across a network of international partners, we will reach our goal of imaging the entire Earth, every day."
"Были когда-то и мы рысаками!!!"

Salo

Цитировать Jeff Foust ‏@jeff_foust  
 
Chris Quilty of Raymond James says he expects a 4-6 month delay because of the F9 launch failure; "shouldn't be tremendously impactful".

  7:16 - 29 июня 2015 г.
"Были когда-то и мы рысаками!!!"

Salo

Т.е. возможно пусков в этом году больше не будет.
"Были когда-то и мы рысаками!!!"

Lanista

Думаю за 3-4 месяца разберутся.

LRV_75

ЦитироватьШтуцер пишет:
ЦитироватьДмитрий В. пишет:
Думаю, не более 12 пусков.
11. Но по мне - так вероятна авария на 6-7 пуске с приостановкой на месяца три-четыре.
Еще один провидец )
Главное не наличие проблем, главное способность их решать.
У каждой ошибки есть Имя и Фамилия

m-s Gelezniak

ЦитироватьLRV_75 пишет:
ЦитироватьШтуцер

пишет:
ЦитироватьДмитрий В. пишет:
Думаю, не более 12 пусков.
11. Но по мне - так вероятна авария на 6-7 пуске с приостановкой на месяца три-четыре.
Еще один провидец )
Да с меня пошло. Каюсь. Давно замечено что о некоторых вещах лучше помалкивать.
Шли бы Вы все на Марс, что ли...

Антон

Вангую, в сентябре-октябре полетит

Salo

http://spacenews.com/nasa-considering-more-cargo-orders-from-orbital-atk-spacex/
ЦитироватьMusk has also said SpaceX could resume launching as soon as September, but an industry source said Aug. 19 the company is now planning a November return to flight. That launch would be a commercial mission for SES of Luxembourg using the newly upgraded Falcon 9 rocket.
"Были когда-то и мы рысаками!!!"

Salo

ЦитироватьLaunched:

2015:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

01 - January 10 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 09:47
02 - February 11 - DSCOVR (Triana) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03:32.287
03 - March 2 - Eutelsat 115 West B (Satmex 7), ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 03:50
04 - April 14 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 20:10:41
05 - April 27 - TürkmenÄlem 52E (MonacoSat) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03
06 - June 28 - Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 14:21 (launch failure)

Scheduled:

Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2015

NET October - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E (or November)
NET November - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8), BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET November December (TBD) - SES-9 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET November - Orbcomm G2 (x11) - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET November - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2016)
NET November - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2016)
"Были когда-то и мы рысаками!!!"

Антон Власов

ЦитироватьLRV_75 пишет:
ЦитироватьШтуцер пишет:
ЦитироватьДмитрий В. пишет:
Думаю, не более 12 пусков.
11. Но по мне - так вероятна авария на 6-7 пуске с приостановкой на месяца три-четыре.
Еще один провидец )
нас тут таких много...

LRV_75

Хорошо, статус провидца принимается ))
Главное не наличие проблем, главное способность их решать.
У каждой ошибки есть Имя и Фамилия

Salo

#77
ЦитироватьLaunched:
 
2015:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

01 - January 10 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 09:47
02 - February 11 - DSCOVR (Triana) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03:32.287
03 - March 2 - Eutelsat 115 West B (Satmex 7), ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 03:50
04 - April 14 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 20:10:41
05 - April 27 - TürkmenÄlem 52E (MonacoSat) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03
06 - June 28 - Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 14:21 (launch failure)

Scheduled:
 
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)
 
2015

mid-December 4-10 - Orbcomm G2 (x11) - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET December 6 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8 ) , BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2016)
December 27 - SES-9 - Falcon 9 v1.2 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2016)
Получается восемь или девять пусков

ЗЫ: Всё-таки не более восьми.

ЗЗЫ:  Семь-восемь. Я так думаю.
"Были когда-то и мы рысаками!!!"

Настрел

ЦитироватьШтуцер пишет:
11. Но по мне - так вероятна авария на 6-7 пуске с приостановкой на месяца три-четыре.
Launched:
 
2015:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

01 - January 10 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 09:47
02 - February 11 - DSCOVR (Triana) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03:32.287
03 - March 2 - Eutelsat 115 West B (Satmex 7), ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 03:50
04 - April 14 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 20:10:41
05 - April 27 - TürkmenÄlem 52E (MonacoSat) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03
06 - June 28 - Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 14:21 (launch failure)
 

Ув. Штуцер, надеюсь вы не имели ввиду на 6 И 7 пуске?

ilan

А задержка-то вышла уже на пол-года. :|
Так, что в длительности задержки Штуцер не угадал.
Посмотрим теперь на счет "И". ;)