Сколько пусков Falcon 9 будет в 2015 году?

[Плейшнер]

Ну-и-ну пишет:

Плейшнер пишет:
Вот, если не попадете?

В смысле, если постскриптум не сбудется? Или от иных причин?

нет-нет, просто ворота такие широкие поставили 6-14 , будет очень смешно, если не попадете

[Ну-и-ну]

Раньше СпейсИкс был проще и предсказывался на раз. И диапазон "разумных" целых чисел был меньше

В след году всё будет сложнее. Но мой прогноз 9+1+1, а "ворота" - так, для дальнего прицела.

Но я не Бог, могу и не угадать  

[Alexio]

Alex_II пишет:
Скорее у них засада с длительностью подготовки стартов (да и без приключений там не обходится). Ну и упорно работают над достижением многоразовости - из-за чего собственно очередной пуск Дракона к МКС на следующий год уплыл...

Насчет проблем с запуском - согласен, им нужен третий стартовый комплекс с обслуживающим персоналом. Текущие явно не справляются. 
Но если они добьются многоразовости, тогда потребность в двигателях станет ещё меньше. Нелогично, хотя часть производственных мощностей перейдут на ремонт и обслуживание уже летавших (сервисный центр).

[Alex_II]

Alexio пишет:
Но если они добьются многоразовости, тогда потребность в двигателях станет ещё меньше.

Так ведь не все пуски предполагают возвращение первой ступени... Я так понимаю, многоразовость там будет довольно ограниченная, по крайней мере поначалу - 3-5 пусков от силы. Отработали двигатели свое - снимают со ступени лапки и в последний путь... Можно еще на вторую ступень переставлять - но там геморроя больше с переборкой...

[triage]

Alexio пишет:
Насчет проблем с запуском - согласен, им нужен третий стартовый комплекс с обслуживающим персоналом. Текущие явно не справляются.

Из текущих в 2014 использовался только один. 
Интересно, а с SLC-39A они могут запускать коммерческие спутники на 9.1? Или только Хеви и пилотируемые?

[Salo]

Освежим список:

2015
January 9 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 10:09
January 29 - DSCOVR (Triana) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:35
February 17 (TBD) - Eutelsat 115 West B (Satmex 7), ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
March - Dragon Inflight Abort (суборбитальный) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
April 8 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
1st half - TürkmenÄlem 52.00E (MonacoSat) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd quarter - SES-9 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June 13 - Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
midyear - Orbcomm G2 (x11) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
midyear - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
August - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
August - STP-02: DSX, FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM, OTB, FalconSat 6, NPSat 1, Oculus-ASR, Prox 1, LightSail B, Cubesats, Ballast - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or April 2016)
September 2 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS 8 ) , BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
September - SAOCOM-1A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
3rd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
2nd half - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
late - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
late - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
December 9 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - FORMOSAT 5 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E

piggybacked:
3rd quarter - TBD - Falcon 9 v1.1/SHERPA - TBD
2nd half - Itasat-1- Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
late - TBD - Falcon 9 v1.1/SHERPA - TBD
late - Nayif-1 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - TBD

ЗЫ: STP-02 с высокой долей вероятности ушёл на 2016.
Добавил суборбитальный тест САС.

ЗЗЫ: Второй пуск Иридиумов ушёл вправо.

ЗЗЫ: Jason-3 ушёл на середину года.

[Salo]

SAOCOM-1A, FORMOSAT-5 и Itasat-1 в принципе могут улететь одной ракетой.

[Salo]

http://spaceflightnow.com/2015/01/06/cargo-flight-first-of-many-spacex-launches-planned-for-2015/

Cargo flight first of many SpaceX launches planned for 2015       
Posted on January 6, 2015 by Stephen Clark

SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket is seen at Cape Canaveral's Complex 40 launch pad before going vertical. Credit: SpaceX
 
SpaceX will kick off a busy 2015 calendar playing catch-up, with liftoff of a Dragon supply ship for the International Space Station set for Tuesday after a delay fr om December.
At least a dozen — and perhaps as many as 16 — space missions are on SpaceX's manifest this year, launching cargo to the space station, commercial communications satellites, and scientific spacecraft for NASA.
Also in SpaceX's plans for 2015: The first launch of the company's Falcon Heavy mega-rocket, which will be powered by 27 engines when it blasts off from the Apollo- and shuttle-era launch pad 39A at Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
Critical abort tests of SpaceX's Crew Dragon spaceship are also on tap for this year, but they are not counted on the company's operational manifest.
SpaceX founder Elon Musk says the Hawthorne, Calif.-based company has about one launch per month over the next year. Other sources also said SpaceX has at least 12 launches scheduled for 2015, but company's customers appear to be expecting SpaceX to deliver even more.
SpaceX had a similar number of flights on its docket in 2014, including the Falcon Heavy's debut launch and the Dragon abort tests, which slipped to some time this year. Six Falcon 9 rockets ended up blast off last year.
Most of the missions will take off from Cape Canaveral's Complex 40 launch facility. The Falcon Heavy test flight will launch from nearby pad 39A, and one or two flights are expected to launch from SpaceX's West Coast launch pad in California, according to a source not authorized to speak on the record.
"The manifest is busy," said Hans Koenigsmann, SpaceX's vice president of mission assurance, without specifying how many launches the company plans for 2015. "On the bright side, this will now include more launch sites. Vandenberg will be more active."
The last Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California was in September 2013.
The company publishes its launch backlog on its website, but officials recently switched the mission manifest from chronological order to an alphabetical listing, removing the year each flight was scheduled for liftoff.
SpaceX does not signal its long-term target launch dates, but some of the company's customers have disclosed when they expect to launch their payloads.
The year of launches begins Tuesday with the 6:20:29 a.m. EST (1120:29 GMT) launch of SpaceX's fifth operational cargo resupply mission to the International Space Station.
There is a 70 percent chance of favorable weather for Tuesday's launch opportunity.
The flight was supposed to take off in December, but engineers wanted extra time to analyze a problem observed during a prelaunch static fire test, wh ere the Falcon 9's rockets were ignited for a brief firing on the launch pad. The engines did not run as long as planned, Koenigsmann said, so SpaceX opted to stand down while they resolved the problem and tested the engines again.
SpaceX has programmed the Falcon 9 rocket's first stage — a cylindrical structure roughly 15 stories tall — to fly itself back to Earth and make a precision landing on an ocean-going vessel dubbed the autonomous spaceport drone ship.
Officials bill the flyback and landing as purely experimental, a secondary goal to the mission's prime objective of resupplying the space station. SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk also put the chances of achieving the landing on Tuesday's flight at about 50-50.
But SpaceX promises to keep trying when it has opportunities to conduct the daring flyback maneuver. Some missions with heavy satellites heading to high-altitude orbits, such as many communications satellites, need all of the Falcon 9 rocket's fuel capacity.
SpaceX's logistics missions to the space station require less of a boost from the Falcon 9 rocket, leaving extra fuel in its tanks to refire its engines and guide itself back to Earth.
After Tuesday's cargo launch, SpaceX's next mission will take off no earlier than Jan. 29 with the Deep Space Climate Observatory, a deep space sentinel that will give space weather forecasters advance notice of solar storms approaching Earth.
The Jan. 29 launch of DSCOVR from Cape Canaveral will mark SpaceX's first launch to send a spacecraft out of Earth orbit. The small satellite — a mission led by NOAA with participation from NASA and the U.S. Air Force — will be positioned at the L1 libration point, a gravitationally-stable position about a million miles toward the sun from Earth.
In mid-February, a Falcon 9 rocket will launch from Florida with two Boeing-built communications satellites — the first spacecraft to use all-electric propulsion to reach their operational posts 22,300 miles above Earth's equator.
The Eutelsat 115 West B and ABS 3A satellites — owned by Paris-based Eutelsat and Asia Broadcast Satellite of Hong Kong and Bermuda — will be dropped off in an elliptical transfer orbit by the Falcon 9 rocket's second stage.
Most communications satellites carry liquid hydrazine fuel to boost themselves the rest of the way to their final orbits. The propellant tanks take up mass and volume, forcing satellite owners to buy a bigger rocket and leaving less room for communications transponders, antennas and other revenue-generating equipment.
SpaceX's next launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California is set for March 31 with the Jason 3 ocean altimetry satellite for NASA, NOAA, the French space agency CNES, and Eumetsat, NOAA's counterpart in Europe.
Later in the year, SpaceX plans up to four more Dragon resupply missions launching aboard Falcon 9 rockets from Cape Canaveral. They are currently set for launch in April, June, September and December.
A package of 11 small data relay satellites for Orbcomm Inc. are due for liftoff from SpaceX's Florida launch pad in mid-2015.
SES of Luxembourg, one of the world's largest commercial satellite operators, expects to launch its SES 9 communications payload on a Falcon 9 rocket some time between beginning of April and the end of June, according to a senior SES executive.
Japan's SKY Perfect JSAT Corp., Israel's Spacecom Ltd. and the government of Turkmenistan also say they have satellites due for launch on Falcon 9 rockets this year.
Another set of all-electric propulsion communications satellites — Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A — is being prepared for a launch slot on a Falcon 9 booster in late 2015, according to Boeing.
Iridium Communications plans to launch 10 of its next-generation mobile voice and data communications satellites by the end of 2015 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg. Iridium's chief executive said the mission was on track in a conference call with investment analysts in late 2014.
Six more Falcon 9 launches with Iridium satellites are scheduled from the California launch base in 2016 and 2017 to build out Iridium's new fleet in low Earth orbit.

Follow Stephen Clark on Twitter: @StephenClark1.

[Pirat5]

Испытание системы аварийного спасения пилотируемого корабля SpaceX Dragon 2 на стартовой площадке (Pad Abort Test) состоится не ранее 10 февраля. Лицензия Федерального управления гражданской авиации США на это испытание действует до 7 марта. По договору с НАСА, Pad Abort Test и испытание САС в полете (In-Flight Abort Test) должны быть выполнены до 30 марта.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?..

https://vk.com/casph?w=wall-36969581_7422

[Pirat5]

испытание будет проведено на SLC-40

[Salo]

Deflang пишет:
о, только хотел поднять эту тему, опередили) Какой там у нас след. пуск. И, кстати, испытание САС считается запуском или это вне списка?

Dragon Inflight Abort Test в списке.

[triage]

удалено

[Анотар]

13 пусков всего. 11 Драконов 9.1, 1 - испытательный пуск Хэви и 1 - испытание САС.

[us2-star]

Анотар пишет:
13 пусков всего. 11 Драконов 9.1, 1 - испытательный пуск Хэви и 1 - испытание САС.

Какие 11 Драконов? Надеюсь опечатались .
1 есть, прогноз не меняю, испытание САС не считается Вот от какого пуска 1-ю ступень, кстати, полноценно возвращать сам Технократ велел   

[Alex_II]

us2-star пишет:
Какие 11 Драконов? Надеюсь опечатались

Фалконов же... По моему это и так понятно...

[Lanista]

Не назову цифру, но думаю будет авария и перерыв на несколько месяцев.
(плюнул три раза и постучал по дереву)

[Salo]

Освежим список:

Launched:
2015:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

01 - January 10 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 09:47
02 - February 11 - DSCOVR (Triana) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03:32.287
03 - March 2 - Eutelsat 115 West B (Satmex 7), ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 03:50

Scheduled:
2015
NET March 21 - TürkmenÄlem 52E (MonacoSat) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 20:04
April 10 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
May-June - SES-9 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
late May-early June - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E (or July)
June 22 - Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June-July - Orbcomm G2 (x11) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
August 2 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8 ) , BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
August - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 3rd quarter)
September - SAOCOM-1A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
3rd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
2nd half - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 5 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - Dragon Inflight Abort (суборбитальный) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E

Итого 17, включая один суборбитальный.

[Salo]

http://news.yahoo.com/spacex-says-boosting-output-track-13-rocket-launches-035600301--finance.html

SpaceX says boosting output, on track for 13 rocket launches this year
Reuters
By Andrea Shalal and Irene Klotz 18 hours ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Space Exploration Technologies, or SpaceX, is rapidly increasing production of the engines that power its Falcon 9 rocket and expects to meet its target of 13 launches and two test flights this year, President Gwynne Shotwell told Reuters.

SpaceX, the technology upstart founded by entrepreneur Elon Musk, is stepping up hiring of engineers and other workers to help boost production, including many from other sectors such as the automotive industry and the military, company officials said.

This year, the company expects to produce at least 180 engines, with that number set to increase to 240 next year, and 400 in 2017, Shotwell told Reuters in an interview late last week.

Shotwell said increasing production put the company on track to complete 13 launches this year. It fell short of its targets last year due to a number of factors.

"Certainly from a manufacturing perspective, we should be able to meet those targets," said Shotwell, who is due to testify before the House Armed Service Committee on Tuesday about a drive to end U.S. reliance on a Russian-built engine that powers one of two rockets used by SpaceX rival United Launch Alliance (ULA).

The Air Force expects to certify SpaceX by June to launch some military and intelligence satellites using its Falcon 9 rockets. Currently, those satellites can only be launched by ULA, a joint venture of Lockheed Martin Corp and Boeing Co, the two largest U.S. arms makers.

SpaceX has shaken up the satellite industry in recent years, winning a variety of launch contracts from commercial firms, as well as NASA, and putting pressure on ULA to lower its costs. But skeptics say the jury is still out on whether SpaceX can keep up with rising demand and growing backlog.

SpaceX has already launched three times this year and is gearing up for a fourth launch on March 21, followed by a cargo resupply mission for NASA in early April.

The company also has a prototype crew capsule at Cape Canaveral for a test flight to prove that a spaceship carrying astronauts could safely abort a mission if a rocket blew up on the launch pad, she said.

SpaceX plans a second test flight this year for NASA, aimed showing its ability safely land astronauts if a launch was aborted during flight.

Shotwell said the company was also making "great progress" on its 27-engine Falcon Heavy rocket, and planned to test it later this year at a refurbished space shuttle launch pad at Kennedy Space Center in Florida.    

(Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

[Salo]

Обновляем:

Launched:
2015:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

01 - January 10 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 09:47
02 - February 11 - DSCOVR (Triana) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:03:32.287
03 - March 2 - Eutelsat 115 West B (Satmex 7), ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 03:50

Scheduled:
2015
NET April 10 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET April 24 - TürkmenÄlem 52E (MonacoSat) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
early June - SES-9 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or summer)
June 22 - Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
July 22 - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
July-August - Orbcomm G2 (x11) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or midyear)
August - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
September 2 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8 ) , BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
September - SAOCOM-1A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
3rd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
2nd half - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 5 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - Dragon Inflight Abort (суборбитальный) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E

Итого 17, включая один суборбитальный.

Два явно ушли вправо. Видимо SAOCOM-1A и JCSat-14.

ЗЫ: Один точно AMOS-6, а второй возможно SAOCOM-1A.

[triage]

первый бабах случился 28 июня при выполнении 6 запуска с начала года, Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7).
(без учета испытаний САС для пилотируемого Дракона)