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Update: obj. 43168 HUMANITY STAR decay prediction: March 22, 2018 UTC 05h46mn ± 30h

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Dr Marco Langbroek‏ @Marco_Langbroek 3 ч. назад

My current estimate for the #reentry of #Tiangong1: April 1 +- 4 days. There is a ~5.5-day periodicity variation in the drag (very slow rotation?), so I expect the date to rock back-and-fort by a few days in a similar pattern over the coming 2-3 weeks. @SSC_NL

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Itzalpean‏ @Itzalpean 1 ч. назад

#Tiangong1 reentry update: 1st method: April 4. 2nd method: April 6. Both +- 7 days. On graphic, green/black: Observed. Red/Blue: Predicted @Marco_Langbroek @jremis @timmermansr @Spaceflight101 @planet4589 Happy to see all giving similar dates. We can fight desinformation!

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вблизи Tolanaro объект 26870 MOLNIYA 3-51 SL-6 R/B(2) пролетел на высоте 117км (минимальная высота на этом витке была 105,1км), так что свечение объекта будет видно через виток в районе Pointe-Noire (Конго), ИМХО...

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 1 ч. назад

A Blok-ML rocket stage from a 2001 Russian Molniya-3 launch reentered over the Paciifc Mar 17 about 2230 UTC. Final orbit had perigee/apogee of 112 x 306 km.

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 7 ч. назад

Tiangong-1 orbit now 219 x 242 km, down 2 km from yesterday

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Dr Marco Langbroek‏ @Marco_Langbroek 1 ч. назад

My latest #reentry estimate for #Tiangong1: 31 March +- 3 days The geomagnetic storm of yesterday does seem to have given it a bump. @SSC_NL

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 9 мин. назад

Here's the plot I made of Humanity Star's rapid orbital decay

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 3 мин. назад

Soyuz MS-08 (196 x 232 km) is the lowest orbital period Earth satellite at the moment. That will soon change as it raises its orbit on the way to ISS. Tiangong-1 is next, at 213 x 235 km. Next is Humanity Star, at 218 x 240 km, which will reenter before Tiangong.

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 4 ч. назад

The @RocketLab Humanity Star satellite latest orbit data(9 hr ago) is 217 x 234 km. It's down 22 km since 24 hours earlier. @SpaceTrackOrg predicts reentry between 5 and 15 hours from now

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 3 ч. назад

New orbit data for Hu Star, epoch 4 hours ago: 205 x 225 km and new reentry prediction: 1130 to 1730 UTC, 8 to 14 hours from now. Center of window trending later.

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 44 сек. назад

Humanity Star latest orbital data, epoch 2 hours ago: orbit 198 x 207 km, down 22 km in last 12 hours. No update to reentry window, still 1130 to 1730 UTC (5 to 11 hours from now). Currently heading S over S Atlantic towards Antarctic

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 2 ч. назад

Humanity Star latest orbit data (3 hours ago): 169 x 190 km (above geoid). New reentry estimate from Space-Track is 1246 to 1344 UTC; it is now 1347 UTC so HS has probably reentered by now

2 ч.2 часа назад

During that window HS passed over the Indian Ocean, central Asia, the Arctic and Alaska

2 ч. назад

The Asian part of the track passed over Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazkhstan, Tyumen, Yenisei Gulf. We may get a more accurate reentry time later, but wanted to point out even after reentry the location can be very uncertain

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http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2018/01/12/tiangong-1-reentry-updates/

TIANGONG-1 REENTRY UPDATES

Latest reentry forecast provided by ESA's Space Debris Office, ESOC, Darmstadt, Germany.

Update 21 March 2018

The current estimated window is ~30 March to ~2 April; this is highly variable.

Note: Read our updated FAQ

Reentry will take place anywhere between 43ºN and 43ºS (see map here). Areas above or below these latitudes can be excluded. At no time will a precise time/location prediction from ESA be possible. This forecast was updated approximately weekly through to mid-March, and is now being updated every 1~2 days.


Tiangong-1 reentry window forecast as of 21 March Credit: ESA


Tiangong-1 altitude decay forecast as of 21 March Credit: ESA

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 16 мин. назад

Space-Track has issued the decay notice - Humanity Star has reentered. No revision to the entry window, was sometime in the 1246-1344 UTC range, somewhere on the white-colored track in Marco's map.

Dr Marco Langbroek‏ @Marco_Langbroek 4 ч. назад

The @TheHumanityStar could be reentering about now, over southern Asia: (see also previous two tweets)

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Jonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 4 ч. назад

Tiangong-1 orbit now 210x231 km. Down 2 km since yesterday

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Chris G - NSF‏ @ChrisG_NSF 31 мин. назад

Chinese space station reentry UPDATE: #Tiangong1 now predicted to reenter in a 4 day window from 30 March - 2 April. That is a significant narrowing from before. Models should continue to converge in the coming days. Tiangong-1 currently in an orbit of 209 x 230 km,

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Obj. 24906 IRIDIUM 23 decay prediction: March 29, 2018 UTC 01h47mn ± 34h

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Update: obj. 43239 SOYUZ MS-08 R/B decay prediction: March 25, 2018 UTC 00h36mn ± 4h

возможные места "падения": London: 22h21mn

Nagpur: 22h38mn London: 23h52mn Al Hamra: 00h04mn Montreal: 01h11mn Marseille: 01h24mn Djibouti: 01h36mn

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Dr Marco Langbroek‏ @Marco_Langbroek 4 ч. назад

While all eyes are on #Tiangong1, another object will quietly come down tonight: the upper stage from the recent #Soyuz launch to the ISS. My current nominal estimates with SatAna/SatEvo and GMAT, and the current JSpOC TIP position on a map (dashed trajectory = uncertainty!)