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Как Китайцы на Луну полетят
Так, признаемся сразу - кто еще кроме Роскосмоса и НАСА не говит высадку на Луну :evil:
Делай что должен и будь что будет
Иран, возможно, готовит высадку человека на Луну[/size:4a1d2e1e30]
Обозреватель космической секции MSNBC Джереми Хсу опубликовал обозрение планов иранской космической экспансии.
MSNBC, как же, знаем. Они недавно наняли на работу Элиота Спитцера, коротый в основном известен тем, что он будучи губернатором потратил 80 тыс. долларов на проституток (кроме шуток). У них там вся команда такая, квалифицированная.
Когда жизнь экзаменует - первыми сдают нервы.

Иран, возможно, готовит высадку человека на Луну[/size:fa84794b84]
. . .
В феврале этого года Иран объявил об успешном запуске ракеты "Кавошгар". Ракета, поднявшись на высоту 100 км , якобы вывела на орбиту спутник. "Спутник" после этого якобы "спланировал" обратно на Землю, хотя иранцы не представили никаких доказательств того, что это действительно произошло.
Иран заявил, что в следующем году запустит с помощью 27-метровой жидкотопливной ракеты "Симоргх" коммуникационный спутник "Фонарь" весом 65-70 кг.
Всем русскоязычным студентам (включая всех бывших, и даже иностранцев) название иранского коммуникационного спутника явно на что-то кагбэ намекает...  :wink:  
Вот тут более четко отвечено на вопрос "когда":
China’s Long March-X-(8?) Manned Lunar Booster
© C. P. Vick 2009 All Rights Reserved
6-21-10-- 7-28-10

Chinese booster development is run in a somewhat similar manner to Soviet era r esearch and development periods for a space booster and strategic ballistic missile development projects. The “design study development” known as the “Draft Project” second phase of the Chinese Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology review of the potential heavy lift booster after the Long March-5E medium heavy lift booster has been started from the middle of the present PRC Five Year Plan 1-2006 through 1-2011.
. . .
Multiple Five Year Plans from Concept to Flight Operations/Production:

Each stage in development matures in the middle years of the individual FYP. It generally takes two to three five years plans to be completed by the normal Soviet cycle.
. . .
The CZ-X-(?) heavy lift booster is to have a general liftoff thrust on the order of 3,000 metric tons [6,615,000 lbs f] verses the Long March-5 liftoff thrust of 1,000 tonnes [2,205,000. lbs f]. In this early phase of the design studies that will end in sub-scale vehicle configuration, dynamic, structural testing the actual settled upon design and the required payload configuration, payload capacity have not been fully resolved pending the results of the preliminary trade off design studies. Mission configuration trades off studies are still under consideration based on hardware experience already in the pipe line and those planned for the Long March-5 series.

Those design studies have now revealed the proposed five engines for it first stage with a launch thrust level for each engine of 600 metric tons [1,323,000 lbsf] or 3,000 metric tons [6,615,000 lbsf] thrust very similar to the Russian approach. This design seems to be based on a large diameter core with four large diameter strap-on boosters using the same engine. This is what Mr. Phillip Clark of the British Interplanetary Society suggested in published studies some years previously.

If the engine design studies are approved for development of the engine scheme for the next five year plan the engines component R&D would be started about mid way through the next five year plan 2011-2015. That would be the first article proposed for development expected to take two five year plans to be concluded successfully. It would be an indication of the PRC’s government intentions to pursue a post LM-5E heavy lift launch vehicle program for future application to State approved missions.

Based on its thrust level at liftoff as presently presented suggest that this is an Earth Orbital Rendezvous booster design approach payload capacity possibly in the 30-35 metric tonnes range for such a mission. Without higher thrust a more direct 45-50 metric tonnes Saturn-V class approach is not possible with this lower thrust level. That is it is a similar to the launch earth orbit assembly design approach as Russia’s, Federal Space Agency & industry are pursuing at the present time with a similar intent. Many of these issues may not be resolved until the middle of the next five year plan 1-2011 through 1-2016 where a decision will be made to delay or add it to the next five year plan for development and use of the national resources as the medium powered Long March-5e is due to come on line. It is already known that China has put off a manned lunar landing program for the 2026 through 2030 five year plan period.[/size:8ecae8c2cb] This fits the nominal State planning process scheduling. For further details see the following piloted lunar landing article: piloted-lunar-landing

China’s Crewed Lunar Missions Planned for 2021-2025 / 2026-2030 Five Year Plans

In the mean time China plan to use the existing spacecraft variations and their boosters to do the initial un-crewed robotic lunar exploration precursor flights in the Chang’e-1 through Chang’e-4 series to accomplish "Orbiting, Landing & Returning missions" during the 2006-2010, 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 five year plans while pursuing the human crewed lunar program planning. The China Academy of Sciences has developed a twenty five year long term “Future Outlook” forecast the “space technology planning research strategy” document for the Peoples Republic of China (PRC’s) government consideration which was finished in the present Five Year Plan (fyp-2006-2010). It is a road map of possibilities to study for decisions on whether to proceed with a human crewed lunar effort that would be very national S & T resource demanding. In addition to that they must be looking over their shoulders because of the 2006 lunar exploration coordination agreement with Russia already formalized. The Chinese crewed Space Station program has won out in the shorter term committed efforts and will come first. World trends influence this with the leadership that has full knowledge of the US , European and Russian crewed lunar planning in development?
. . .
China ’s Manned Lunar Effort in the Outlook Plans for 15 Years Hence

Previously it was noted that eventually down the road two five year plans beyond the present five year plan we could expect them to have started developing a CZ-5 based earth orbital rendezvous (EOR) four to six payload assembly or a Saturn-V class near direct or EOR based launch vehicle in the 3,000 – 4,000 ton’s thrust category for human lunar landing and large earth orbit payloads. Once the CZ-5 booster becomes operational after 2014, the single launch crewed circumnavigation mission becomes possible and the lunar orbital mission becomes possible through EOR. This is because the Shenzhou spacecraft has built into its design the capacity for earth orbit and lunar orbital missions. It could with proper equipment also support a human lunar landing mission through EOR similar the present Russian mission concept utilizing a heavy lift earth orbital rendezvous booster design approach. Ultimately it is the political leadership that must support and justify these programs domestically in spite of how much the industry and scientist believe it to be necessary.
. . . Any manned lunar landing program development would not be expected to manifest itself until the 2016-2020 and 2021-2025 five year plans with the actual manned lunar program following after that during the middle of the 15 th. or 16 th. five year plans. Although the manned lunar landing program prospects are apparently now in the 25 year “ future outlook plans” for future serious consideration this is a far cry from being an actual committed State program which it is not by China .


Basically we now have the PRC China manned spaceflight planning laid out for the next three five year plans including this five year plan (2006-2010), 2011-2015, 2016-2020 with strong hints on the 2021- 2025 FYP which reflects how China intends to both equal or pull ahead of any of the then to exist world powers on the world stage in manned spaceflight as a part of its doctrinal belief that it can replace one of those world powers on the world stage towards the end of that period. Whether like Russia in its present economy that will not last the question is can China truly economically control and sustain this attempt remains uncertain but it is more probable than others as things stand today. The CZ-5 based EOR assembly payloads for a crewed lunar landing mission seems more probable at this point but it must continue to be watched through the coming next few FYPs. It could also carry out the human lunar landing mission through the introduction of a new booster beyond the CZ-5 booster’s capacity but this at this time remains uncommitted. They have only in the last few years hinted at their 20-25 year forecast planning consideration requirements after the next five year plan. Such a 65- 100 metric ton plus capacity Saturn class launch vehicle “Technical Project” defining the immediate hardware technology development required in support of the future booster development planning. This is why this development project wise appears to be one five year plan ahead of its expected development schedule based on the Long March-5 experience.

This assumes that the leadership still supports such a policy with its even greater associated high resources demanding requirements on the command economy in the future. This is beyond the resource straining command economy commitment to the large support development production base infrastructure of the CZ-5E booster presently in progress. It alone is a full FYP behind schedule. Noting that in the military is the State as well as the 2018-2020 start of the main space station program one is left with the question of how China is to support that space station program as well as a crewed lunar effort at the same time. Crewed lunar circumnavigation and lunar orbit programs are conceivable but a crewed lunar landing or lunar base program is quite another thing that all nations alone would find difficult to economically support including China . This brings into question whether China will have a human lunar landing capability until the middle of the fiscal 2021-2025 Five Year Plan or soon afterwards in the 2026-2030 FYP.
Мне интересно можно ли высадить на Луну 2х тайконавтов с помощью двух ракет "Великий поход-5"
Вопрос "и безопасно вернуть их на обратно на Землю" не стоит? ;)
SFN пишет:
Вопрос "и безопасно вернуть их на обратно на Землю" не стоит?  ;)
Зачем? В Китае не убудет - их там и так дохрена :)
Старый пишет:
А китайцы убедились в этом и снова заговорили о Луне.  :)
Но теперь им уже никто не верит.  :)
... и они могут спокойно работать над лунной пилотируемой программой. Не опасаясь, что кто-то рыпнется и устроит с ними гонку.
Рыба ищет, где глубже, а человек - не рыба!
Смысл жизни человека - в познании Вселенной и в преобразовании её.
Всё гениальное - просто, но не всё простое - гениально.
Китайцы развивают параллельно сразу несколько направлений.
КК-Шэньчжоу и аналог ТКС на базе Тяньгун-1.
Тяньгун-1 и Тяньгун-2...
Иследования Луны Скоро запустят луноход.
Вполне логично будет предположить, что они подумывают о высадке.
Вы как с Луны упали! :)

Дело не в том что говорят,а когда смогут.
Высадить и даже вернуть на Землю вполне возможно, но потребуется 4 РН, в том числе одна пилотируемая. Такая схема была проанализирована в США пару лет тому назад, доклад был представлен на конференции "Pandas on Orbit".
Seti пишет:
Мне интересно можно ли высадить на Луну 2х тайконавтов с помощью двух ракет "Великий поход-5"
Изменено: frigate - 20.07.2013 05:52:30
"Селена, луна. Селенгинск, старинный город в Сибири: город лунных ракет." Владимир Набоков
Почему четыре?
frigate пишет:
Высадить и даже вернуть на Землю вполне возможно, но потребуется 4 РН.
Seti пишет:
можно ли высадить на Луну 2х тайконавтов с помощью двух ракет "Великий поход-5"
А зачем такой напряг? Ведь собрались делать "Великий поход-9" на 100 тонн ПН на ЛЕО и до 50 тон на траэктории к Луне.
Запустят в эксплуатацию "Великий поход-5" и начнуть делать Большую ракету. К 2025 могут и успеть.
К 2025 году Американцы собираются туристов вокруг луны катать надо успеть до...
bmpd - Китай замораживает пилотируемую лунную программу - СМИ
есть  ещё источник?
Изменено: саша - 05.12.2013 18:30:27
саша пишет:
bmpd - Китай замораживает пилотируемую лунную программу - СМИ
есть ещё источник?
Зачем? Сначала СМИ придумали программу, которой в действительности не было, потом "заморозили" ее. Чистое водывступетолчение.
Что реально важно в этом сообщении -- информация о переносе на неопределенный срок утвержденного вроде бы проекта доставки грунта. Это уже неприятно и сигнализирует о проблемах...
Сказанное выше выражает личную точку зрения автора, основанную на открытых источниках информации
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2013-12-05/135028894559.shtml витиевато.
Изменено: SFN - 05.12.2013 19:35:17
Liss пишет:
информация о переносе на неопределенный срок утвержденного вроде бы проекта доставки грунта.
если проект вписывается только в ВП-5 а носитель застрял то ...  :cry:
любой другой вариант закрытия для китайцев неподходит imho
SFN пишет:
оттуда, китайская классификация: Луна - дальний космос
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